The K-4, developed by India’s Defence Research
and Development Organisation (DRDO) with a range capability of 3,500 km, will
be an intermediate range submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Once operational, it will arm India’s first
indigenously-built ballistic missile submarine the INS Arihant, completing
India’s nuclear triad of delivery vehicles.
The K-4 aboard the INS Arihant and future Indian
SSBN’s will give India the ability to target most of China, including Beijing,
and all of Pakistan when operating in the northern parts of the Bay of Bengal.
While technical details are hard to ascertain
given the levels of secrecy involved, the K-4, which underwent its last test in
March 2016, reportedly has a length of 12 metres, a diameter of 0.8 metres, and
can carry a payload of up to 2 tonnes.
The missile is powered by solid rocket propellants
and is highly accurate with a near-zero circular error probability according to
the DRDO.
The INS Arihant will have the capability to carry
four K-4 missiles, and the follow-on SSBN’s that are planned will have the
capacity to carry eight K-4 or such SLBM’s each. Future submarines will
reportedly be larger and will carry missiles of longer range like the S-5,
which will have a reach of over 5,000 kilometres.
New Delhi has an officially adopted posture of no
first use and assured retaliation.
Hence, India considered it essential to develop
capabilities to eventually deploy continuous at-sea nuclear deterrence to
ensure the survivability of its nuclear second-strike capability.
In theory, a sea-based nuclear deterrent is
invulnerable once undersea because it can hide and is not trackable or
targetable by adversaries, unlike ground-based systems. This is especially
important to India, as its land-based systems will have little reaction time
given the proximity of Pakistani and Chinese nuclear weapons.
Pakistan Purchasing Yuan-Class Diesel-Electric Submarines ::
Pakistan has over the last few years pursued
strategic parity with India’s growing underwater nuclear capabilities in an
attempt to negate its conventional superiority.
The Pakistani navy created a strategic command a
few years ago which went on to recently test a nuclear capable submarine launched
cruise missile with a range of 450 kilometres in the form of the Babur III.
Islamabad has claimed second-strike capability.
Pakistan is currently in the process of purchasing eight Yuan-class
diesel-electric submarines from Beijing. Added to the existing three French
Agosta-90B/Khalid and two Agosta-70 submarines of the Pakistan Navy and the
ambiguity of deploying nuclear-armed cruise missiles on conventional submarines
will be highly destabilising.
This would make prosecution of targets vis-à-vis
Pakistan extremely difficult for the Indian Navy in the years to come.
China’s Nukes Can Destroy Most of India ::
China, on the other hand, has an operationalised
at-sea nuclear deterrent and had sent a Jin-class SSBN out on its first
deterrent patrol, according to press reports, in December 2015.
The submarine is armed with up to 12 JL-2 nuclear
armed SLNM’s with a estimated range of 7,200 kilometres, meaning most of India
falls within its range from its operating bastion of the South China Sea.
India’s eventual induction of SSBN’s in numbers
armed with K-4 missiles is unlikely to change or draw any reaction from Beijing
apart from an increase of probes by the Chinese Navy in the Bay of Bengal
region to track and monitor patterns in India’s SSBN deployments.
From Civilian Control of Weapons to Military Control ::
Historically, Indian nuclear warheads and delivery
systems are unmated and housed at different locations.
In a stark contrast and a first, deployment of an
undersea launch capability will require weaponisation of the K-4 and represents
a shift from civilian control of weapons to military control.
The induction in the future of the K-4 will
require a review and strengthening of India’s C4ISR (Command, Control,
Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance)
capabilities and procedures to prevent any unauthorised commands or accidental
launches.
India’s latest maritime strategy document released
in 2015, Enduring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy, states “Cold
War experience has shown that reduction in the first-strike and increase in the
second-strike (retaliatory) component considerably stabilises and strengthens
deterrence”.
With the induction and deployment of the K-4 in
the coming years, India will field a comprehensive spectrum of options which
fulfil India's deterrence and strategic needs.
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(Pushan Das is a Researcher at the Observer
Research Foundation in New Delhi.)
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