Pakistan is ramping up nuclear missile tests in
response to India’s drive to modernise its armed forces, increasing already
heightened tensions between the two countries, military and political analysts
warn.
Islamabad last week conducted its first flight
test of the surface-to-surface Ababeel missile, which has a range of 2,200km
and which officials and analysts say marks a significant step forward in the
country’s ability to target locations in India. The move followed Pakistan’s
first ballistic missile launch from a submarine earlier this month.
“Taken together, these tests prove Pakistan’s
ability to go for an outright war if war is imposed on us,” a senior Pakistani
foreign ministry official told the Financial Times.
Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours
have been tense ever since the partition that followed independence from
Britain in 1947. They have fought three major wars, largely for control of the
disputed state of Kashmir.
Those tensions were reignited by last year’s
attack on an Indian army base at Uri in Kashmir, which killed 19 soldiers and
was followed by tit-for-tat assaults across the de facto border.
However, the most recent missile launches signal a
more long-term threat to stability in the region, giving Pakistan the ability
to launch a nuclear attack even after suffering one itself, analysts warn.
“If Pakistan has a ‘second-strike’ capability, it
could make it more assertive and potentially more willing to launch a first
attack against India,” said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, senior fellow for South Asia
at the International institute for Strategic Studies.
Pakistani officials last week warned they were
ready to use nuclear weapons against India in the event of an invasion by its
neighbour. This followed an admission by Bipin Rawat, head of the Indian army,
that the country had a plan to send troops across the border if it suffered a
terror attack believed to originate in Pakistan.
Tariq Rauf, head of the disarmament programme at
the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said Pakistan’s response
was a reaction to the build-up of India’s conventional military forces.
“If you look at deployment of India’s forces which
can seize and hold territory, 75 per cent of the forces are within reach of the
border [with Pakistan],” he said.
Ikram Sehgal, a prominent Pakistani commentator on
defence and security affairs, said: “Pakistan cannot match India’s planned
spending on conventional arms. The route that Pakistan is taking is to build up
its strategic forces for a credible response if the Indians ever cross over
[into Pakistan].”
After its submarine-based missile test, Islamabad
said: “The successful attainment of a second-strike capability by Pakistan
represents a major scientific milestone. It is manifestation of the strategy of
measured response to nuclear strategies and postures being adopted in
Pakistan’s neighbourhood.”
An official described the Ababeel missile — the
first in Pakistan’s arsenal able to launch multiple warheads at different
targets — “the successful completion of our deterrence”.
While most experts believe the threat of nuclear
war between the two neighbours remains low, some warn about the risks of an
accident caused by trigger-happy military leaders.
“Unlike the old days when the Soviet Union and the
United States did not share a common border, India and Pakistan share a land
border,” said one senior western diplomat with responsibility for monitoring
the two militaries. “The risk of one side accidentally going to war is higher.”
Source :- Financial Times
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